Are We Missing The Point? - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Are We Missing The Point? Stuck

Posted on September 20, 2012 at 09:15 AM.

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Advanced metrics are great tools. They have enhanced the knowledge base of a baseball fan in infinite ways. Because of the study of so many who get labeled with the sabermetrician tag, we now know true measures of a player�s performance. We know that batting average isn�t as important as on base percentage. We know that wins and ERA are move of a product of the team rather than an indication of how a pitcher actually performs. The evolution of statistical analysis is now making it into the mainstream, which is actually causing some great discussion between the mainstream writers and those sabermetricians who have always been on the outside trying to bust in.

But, we are still years away before a mainstream article will talk FIP, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, xFIP, tERA, and Sierra matter of factly. And, that�s alright; this kind of change is erasing 100 years of past practice. For years, it was all about the home run, RBI, batting average, and stolen bases. Pitchers were measured by wins, ERA, and saves. Change takes time. Baseball media is changing, just not at the pace that many would like.

That change is wonderful, but there is a negative to that change. Sometimes, the focus can shift too far away from what we are really watching. This season, it is playing out like that with the American League Most Valuable Player Award.

Mike Trout is the likely winner of the award. The 20 year old�s accomplishments have been discussed everywhere. He�s batting .327/.395/.556 with 118 runs scored, 24 doubles, 6 triples, 27 home runs, 77 RBI, and 46 stolen bases. With his defense also rated at an elite level, he is a deserving winner of both the MVP and Jackie Robinson Awards. His .231 ISO, .420 wOBA, 174 wRC+ are also quite impressive. His presence on the Angels and the impact he made on their slow start is measurable and meets the criteria for being considered valuable.

But, Trout does have one other contender for the MVP Award in Miguel Cabrera. The Detroit slugger has long been one of the most consistently elite hitters in the game. He�s been overshadowed by Albert Pujols for most of his career and this year has been overshadowed, like everyone else, by Mike Trout. Cabrera is hitting .333/.398/.614 with 101 runs scored, 38 doubles, 41 home runs, and 130 RBI. Of course, Cabrera is an awful defender at third base, but that was already a given before the season started.

The conflict in the MVP voting is that many are discounting just how special of an offensive season that Cabrera is compiling. He is one home run away from actually being a potential triple crown winner.

And, that is actually the conflict. The triple crown was once one of the most revered accomplishments in Major League Baseball. In some corners, it is still referred to with reverence. But, as one prominent analyst stated, they are the three wrong statistics. Batting average is no longer a statistic of value when it comes to determining a player�s performance. RBI are even less so as so much is dependent on that category.

Haven�t we gone a bit too far to actually denigrate a potential triple crown season? True, RBI is a circumstantial statistic, but a player hasn�t had a triple crown since 1967. And, quite frankly, it still is an amazing accomplishment. Cabrera�s season is one of the most dominant, powerful seasons in quite some time. His .292 ISO, .420 wOBA, and 169 wRC+ are also quite impressive.

Mike Trout should win the Award. By WAR standards, Trout is a 9.4 WAR player. Cabrera is a 6.6 WAR player. Cabrera does get heavily penalized because of his defense. Trout�s season and all around value are incredible. There is no arguing that. He does deserve the award.

But, his winning the award shouldn�t come at the price of discounting Cabrera�s potentially historic season. Yes, he leads two categories that aren�t considered as valuable in today�s game, but the accomplishment is still quite impressive. It is one that should be celebrated and should be factored into the MVP voting. Batting average and RBI aren�t useful statistics in terms of ascertaining a player�s value, but they aren�t useless either. Some weight should be given to them.

And, it wouldn�t be a travesty if Cabrera were to win the award. He has compiled a worthy season. He has compiled an historic season. In terms of value, he has been every bit as valuable to the Tigers as Trout has been to the Angels. His presence in the lineup is just as important as Trout�s.

Advanced metrics and analysis favor Trout, but that doesn�t mean voters would be wrong for giving the award to Cabrera. What is wrong is to simply dismiss Cabrera�s accomplishments because they don�t fit the new criteria. That is wrong; it�s also exactly what the sabermetric community fought against when most of their statistics and formulas were just ignored before even tested. The pendulum cannot swing too far the other way where excellent, elite seasons are dismissed.

Is Mike Trout a legitimate MVP? Sure he is. His season is outstanding and is outstanding in all areas of the game. But, Miguel Cabrera's season is also MVP-caliber, even if it is based strictly on offense. To ignore it or dismiss it completely, would be a sign that the voters are simply missing the point.

Comments

# 1 keator @ Sep 20

If Miguel gets the triple crown and doesnt win the MVP, that will be terrible. Winning the triple crown in baseball might be the hardest thing to do in professional sports and should not be taken lightly. Billy Beans "moneyball" stats are great for GMs to evalute a players true worth financially, but it would be hard pressed to not give the award to Miguel if he achives the TC. Now if he misses that feat, i can see going with the "moneyball" stats and giving the award to Trout. The triple Crown holds that much weight for true baseball historians.

# 2 francium34 @ Sep 20

What advanced metrics have pointed out is that Cabrera is having a great year, but Trout's is even better.
Cabrera's numbers would win any other year. But the people who yell "first triple crown in 45 years" ignore the point that Trout is having a historic season too.

Also, do we really want that amount of sensationalism in the evaluation process? Say on the last day Hamilton grounds into double play but drives in a run, to become sole leader in RBIs. How is that related in any way to Cabrera? Should he be discredited in the MVP race because of one unspectacular play on another field?

# 3 CLTheMachine24 @ Sep 20

Good article and though I feel Cabrera is the league MVP, one of them has to get into the playoffs to earn the award. you can not be that "valuable" if your team misses the playoffs. Trout is having a great season though he has cooled off as of late while Cabrera has been a on tear this month. If both miss the playoffs, i would not be surprised if Hamilton or Jeter won the award

# 4 ktd1976 @ Sep 20

What Trout is doing in LA is astounding, no doubt. But, is he a better hitter than Miguel Cabrera...in a word NO. Miguel Cabrera is the reigning batting champion, and is leading again this year. Cabrera has already won a HR title in the AL, and an RBI title. He has a chance to win all THREE this season. He has set career highs in HR, and is close to doing the same in RBI. Moreover, he has been the epitomy of consistancy since 2004, his first full year in the Majors. Yes, Trout is the better baserunner, and the better fielder. But, having watched the Tigers all season long (lifelong fan here) and being very skeptical as to if he could make the transition, Cabrera's poor defense is being way overblown. Is he a great fielder, no. Has he been a poor fielder this season? ABSOLUTELY NOT. Cabrera has been average at third this season. He has made ALL the routine plays, and a few pretty darn good plays. He will never be a great, or even good fielder, but there isn't a player in the game that works harder than Cabrera does. He has done a lot better than anyone could expect.

Look at what Trout has done in the heat of a penant race this season. Trout has cooled off big time (hitting around .270 since the middle of August) while Cabrera has heated up big time. Look back to last season, where Cabrera put the Tigers on his back, and took them to a division title. That, in itself, is the mark of an MVP.

Quite simply put, with the numbers that Miggy is putting up, if Trout wins the award over him, it would be a complete disgrace.

# 5 ktd1976 @ Sep 20

Another thing to consider. When an opposing manager looks at a lineup, and decides on the guy "I'm not gonna let HIM beat us" In the Tiger's lineup, it is hands down Miguel Cabrera. In the Angel's lineup, it is NOT Mike Trout......

# 6 francium34 @ Sep 20

"in the heat of the pennant race"
What's the difference between hitting well in April and September? Do wins in September count as two?
The fact that their average is nearly the same means Trout out-performed Miggy earlier in the year.

Also, from ESPN stats "Highest BA in last 30 days: Marco Scutaro .379, Adrian Beltre .379, Cameron Maybin .375, Erick Aybar .364"
Maybe Beltre should be the MVP by your standards then?

# 7 francium34 @ Sep 20

and I'm not even going near your arguments of
"look back to last season..."
"when an opposing manager..."

# 8 ktd1976 @ Sep 20

Bugle, have you watched the Tigers over an entire season as I have? Cabrera is FAR FROM terrible in the field. He has that reputation of being a poor fielder, but he has actually been very good at third this season.

The difference in hitting well in April and September, is that, in the heat of the pennant race, there is a TON more pressure on a hitter to perform. Cabrera, quite frankly rises to the occasion, while Trout has been in a slump.

# 9 rudyjuly2 @ Sep 22

OPS is the best stat at determining the best offensive player. Cabrera leads the MLB in that stat. And while he may be a poor defensive 3B, good defense has never been a requirement for 3B which is also a harder position to play than CF imo.